I think most people will lean towards Chris Johnson. The Dream had a crazy year last year, and his speed is dynamic and game-changing. He will most likely catch more passes out of the backfield this year, but do not at all expect a 400-carry repeat. That said, I also don't think he will have to score all his touchdowns from outside 30 yards this year, so he'll be able to get in the endzone more, even than the 16 TDs (14 rush, 2 receive) he got last year. Finally, in comparison to Peterson and Jones-Drew, who both power their way through lines, CJ just tries to run away from everybody, making him much less prone to injury and fumbles.
But really I think it's mostly a grab bag for the first three picks because none of them look bad on paper. The Vikings lost Chester Taylor, so maybe that means Peterson will become the third down back and get more catches out of the backfield. IF he can learn to hold on to the ball better in the off-season, he could very easily be the best back in the field. Of course, this all depends on that old guy who got rejected by Cameroon Diaz in favor of Ben Stiller like 15 years ago or whatever that was.
Jones-Drew is definitely the least flashy of the three, but still extremely effective. He catches tons of passes, and if you're in a PPR league, I could see him jumping either or both on the board. He's a great player to have, and I would love to have the third pick so I could get him, but I just can't sell taking him above Peterson or CJ unless Favre has a heart attack from trying to conceal the fact that he's coming back but he just doesn't want to go through all the pre-season mumbo jumbo. Or if Vince Young goes back into depression, or LenDale White puts back on 30 pounds and stops being a Monologue Vagina.
So there it is:
1. Chris Johnson
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
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