Guru's QB Rankings

Tier 1
1. A. Rodgers
2. D. Brees
3. P. Manning
4. T. Brady
(The first 2 guys are heads and shoulders above everyone else. Manning will get you great numbers no matter what. Brady barely makes the cut here...still put up very good numbers last year; 2nd year removed from injury should produce even more)

Tier 2
5. P. Rivers
6. M. Schaub
7. T. Romo
8. B. Favre
(All solid, a little unsure of Favre this year...he may have given all he had left last season, so could see a significant dropoff.)

Tier 3
9. J. Cutler
10. Eli Manning
(Cutler barely misses cut for 2nd tier - throws a lot of picks, but still always ends up with good numbers...if he changes at all from past, I only see him doing better. Eli - unspectacular yet always ends up around this spot.)

Tier 4
11. M. Stafford
12. C. Palmer
(Tier 4 here, consists of the 2 "wild card" guys, who should put up numbers similar to the tier 5 group, but definitely have the most potential to put up top-10 or better numbers.)

Tier 5
13. M. Ryan
14. J. Flacco
15. C. Henne
16. D. Garrard
17. D. McNabb
18. M. Cassel
(All these guys will put about the same, unspectacular, inconsistent numbers. Ryan, Flacco, Henne may be able to get your team through the season.)

Diving into the Helm--Quarterbacks

Brandon Funston is famous on Yahoo! for comprising his "Big Board" of fantasy football players. I think this method, while entertaining, is relatively useless. It's hard to just come up with a ranking scheme for all positions grouped together. That is why I just go by position rankings, and then learn the relative value of players compared to different positions, and also why mock drafting is important to success. Mock drafts allow you to target your players and find out where you will need to draft your targets in order to ensure that no one else snags them from you.

I will start by ranking my top quarterbacks, both into tiers and by consecutive order in which I would draft them

Tier #1

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Peyton Manning

Tier #2

4. Tony Romo

5. Tom Brady

6. Matt Schaub

7. Philip Rivers

8. Brett Favre

Tier #3

9. Eli Manning

Tier #4

10. Matt Ryan

11. Carson Palmer

12. Kevin Kolb

13. Joe Flacco

Tier #5

14. Donovan McNabb

15. Jay Cutler

Notable Others:

Ben Roethlisberger--Aside from the fact that he is a complete moron and no one likes him, he lost one of his favorite targets in the off-season, Santonio Holmes. Although I think Mike Wallace will emerge in Pittsburgh to be a legitimate #3 WR this year because of that, I am still skeptical of Big Ben this year, even after the first four games. The Steelers want to return to their championship form of pounding the ball and wearing down teams with physical play. The odds are that the team will extend significant trust to Rashard Mendenhall, and Big Ben's production will end up being dependent on how effective Mendenhall is. Furthermore, Pittburgh's cryptically shady offensive line puts doubt on both Big Ben and Mendenhall, and the Steelers in general for that matter. I also believe the first four games they play without their leader at helm will be crucial, as it will put them in panic mode or Mendenhall-is-our-Savior mode. Overall, too many worries here for me to take, and I will pick up potential elsewhere.

Alex Smith--That's right, he is under Notable Players. Alex Smith is my deep sleeper quarterback this year, as crazy as it makes me sound. It is definitely hard to put faith into his failed NFL career, but last year he showed some improvement, and things on the offense are shaping up nice for him. The 49ers vastly improved their offensive line in the off-season, adding 2 mammoths to an already subsisting blocking scheme. Smith has no competition this year for the starting gig, so he can focus on improving both individually and collectively. Crabtree will understand the offense better, as this year he is actually with the team in the pre-season, making him a viable option for Smith. He has two players who have proved their abilities in getting open and catching the football, Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. No, I'm not saying Smith will turn into a top 5 QB this year, but if you get anyone outside the top 8 QB he is a good #2 to have to protect the sketchiness of your first QB, because he has plenty of upside and talent around him on a team that is on the rise.

2nd Half of the First Round

Wollnutz (I am calling you this because your last name's Woll and you're the nutz, and its a pun, and I love puns - including Big Pun), I am pretty much in accordance with you, and I think the second half of the first round is where you can lose your season (not necessarily win it though). Like I said in the previous post, I think it's most important to draft a guy who you are nearly 100% will atleast produce top 15-20 value, and good week to week numbers. So, I know you mentioned "rb's are the lifeblood of fantasy football," but reall I think that's in the past now. The NFL has slowly been turning into a "passing first"/rb committee league, and this has changed the familiar "rb in the first round" strategy.

I think after the first 8 or so picks - all running backs, you can start looking elsewhere to be sure you get that value you need to stay competetive for a chance at the playoffs. So, the rb's I trust the most to produce, as they've already shown, are Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, MJD, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Deangelo Williams (2 consecutive good years), Michael Turner (injured last year, still solid #'s). After these guys, there are several different routes you can go...

Your first play and most popular im sure, will be to draft another running back. Year after year, the rb's ranked in these spots usually underproduce. But, there are a couple players here who have a ton of potential, no committee, and will very likely put up solid numbers for you. Shonn Green, Rashad Mendenhall, Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno, and Lesean McCoy all stand out here as players with a load of potential. Other players to look at to round out the first round will be Beanie Wells, Ryan Grant, Ced Benson, and Jamal Charles. Notice, there are a lot of players in this pool, as well as some others so you should be able to snag some in the second round - that will be great value. However, a lot of these players are young and they will not all produce, so you must be careful. We saw last year, players like L.T., Forte, Turner, Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Slaton, Lynch, just completely ruin people's seasons after having stellar previous seasons. This is why you could choose to go soute number 2...

With this strategy, you will be drafting a player at a different position (most likely QB), so that you will be 100% sure your getting points every week. If you get points every week, you atleast have a shot at winning your matchup. I know they changed standard scoring in recent years from 6-pt qb td's, to 4-pts. But, if your league still does 6-pts per passing td, then these qb's need to be drafted in the top-10 for sure. Either way, here are the qb's you could pick instead of a rb in the first round: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning. These guys are getting you 20 points a week no matter what, and you can't find any safer players. Tom Brady could be in this category, but that injury and them team seem a little shaky still. Still, it's very difficult to justify picking a qb so early, when there are several other qb's who put up almost as many, if not more points, than these 3 guys (rivers, favre, schaub).

Everyone wants to hit a homerun with their first round pick, but if you draft on potential in the first round, you will get burned and can easily lose your season. Draft for production, and be sure you're gonna get it, and you'll be smiling come playoff time. Even if that means going against the popular strategy of drafting rb's in the first round.

p.s. - none of this is relevant if your Herm, cuz he's the luckiest kid ever and gets the first pick every year

Finishing out the easy ones

Alright good sir looks like we agree on the first picks. I didn't mention Rice because I was going to do that here, and I also don't think he could go #1 overall like I could see happening with MJD. But now it is time to finish off ranking the rest of the no-brainer first round running backs, because everyone and their mother at least considers taking a running back in the first round.

The way I see it, the running backs on this list, along with the top 3 backs, should be and would be my first 7 picks in any draft. If one of these guys is on the board, I would most likely take them no matter what.

I am in complete agreement with you, Fantasy Guru, on Ray Rice being the clear-cut #4 off the board. I think he has the potential to be #1, but at the same time doesn't seem like his ceiling for touchdowns is as high as any of the top 3. His catches also look like they might be going down this year with the addition of Boldin, as the Ravens will be able to stretch the field more--maybe that ends up as a good thing or maybe a bad thing. But I owned Rice last year, and a TON of his points came at the end of halves and games when they would dump it to him to try to get a field goal. I don't see that happening as much this year. And we also have to worry about the TD poachers of McClain and McGahee (would I be more intimidating on the goal line too if the third letter of my last name was capitalized?).

Moving on, I've set 3 running backs to finish out my top 7, and I wouldn't jump on Rogers/Brees or anyone else (except MAYBE Andre Johnson) before these last 3 are off the board.

5. Frank Gore--he is purely and simply a beast. The 49ers have a solid defense and have slowly but steadily improving offensively through the last 3 years, especially under Singletary. He can do everything, and in this scenario, a WR threat like Crabtree will only allow Gore to roam free of his 8 men-in-the-box nightmare that has showcased in his mind for the last 3 years. People have tried to stop him, but still can't, and with a better team, I love him at #5

6. Michael Turner--guaranteed double digit touchdowns. He hardly has any competition or touch poachers, although he does not have great hands and doesn't catch many passes out of the backfield. Also, his injuries from last year make drafting him very worrisome considering he has only had one true full season as a featured back. Overall, right now I have him here, but he will probably flip-flop with Steven Jackson by the time the season opener rolls around

7. Steven Jackson--We know what we are going to get here. 14 games, over 100 yards from scrimmage average per game, and not many touchdowns. He gets injured for a game or two, but thats usually the extent of him missing time. With Bradford and a new offensive scheme, I like him to get in the endzone a little more this year (well he and the Rams certainly can't regress from last year's offensive output). He has amazing hands, and catches tons of passes, so in a PPR league I actually put him above Turner. His off-season surgery seems trivial and he should be fine before the season begins. I have him below Turner for now, but if training camps go the way I expect them to, I will have SJax up one notch at #6 overall on my board.

So, Mr. Fantasy Guru, when do you start fluttering away from the running back nook that has so often dominated the first rounds of fantasy football's past? How early do you stray away from the statement that many owners have sworn by since the dawn of fantasy football, "Running backs are the lifeblood of fantasy football?"

First Post Should Go To Second Pick...

In my professional opinion, I don't even think there is any question about who the number 1 pick should be in all drafts - Chris Johnson. This man had 65 more points than his "supposed" number 1 pick rival, Adrian Peterson last season. Let's add to that, it was his first season as the only rb on that team - so we can expect a repeat, and he's not as injury prone as Peterson. Plus, the Titan's entire offense revolves around Chris Johnson and defenses still can't stop him...the Vikings have an excellent qb/passing game and they don't necessarily need to rely on Peterson. Johnson's ceiling is still limitless, and he could break rushing records and fantasy records in the upcoming seasons. I dont think there is even a debate here for pick numero uno.

However......I think the second pick of the draft is by far the most intriguing. Not only is there a case for several options, but this pick will ultimately decide how the next couple picks play out, so I think it's rather important. Our options include: Adrian Peterson, MJD, and Ray Rice.....and if your feeling spry (not Kelly Spry) you could even reach for Frank Gore.

A. Peterson - For 2-3 years now, he's been in the top 3 rb's of the league both in reality and fantasy. I think he will go 2nd in almost every league (assuming Johnson goes 1), and deservedly so. He finished 2nd in fantasy points among rb's last year, and 3rd among rb's 2 years ago. Keep in mind, two years ago Deangelo Williams had a freak year, Michael Turner got a million carries, and Matt Forte surprised. Yet, none of these 3 had nearly as much production, and Peterson is always right there. He will be a top 3 rb barring injury, he will probably get more td's this year, and he is the safest number 2 pick.

MJD - Talk about a guy who never gets any love, and is almost always picked in the top-5 every season in recent memory. He plays for a shitty team, and he always gets the job done. He finished 9th in points 2 season ago among rb's, and 3rd last season. If your involved in a ppr-league, this guy is a no brainer number 2 pick most likely. He never puts up spectacular numbers, and his team usually is mediocre at best, but like Peterson he is reliable - and thats extremely important from your number 1 pick. His potentially awful team is discouraging, but he will get his 10 td's rushing, a couple recieving, and maybe some returning. The team relies heavily on him in both the rushing and passing attack, so this makes him capable of topping Peterson in overall fantasy production.

Ray Rice - It is only his third year in the league, but to be honest he is a beast and very reminiscent of MJD. I did predict last year he would end up with first round points/value, and I was right obviously. However, he actually exceeded my expectations and went on to put up the 4th most points among rb's. Here is the problem: he has to share carries with 2 (mostly mcgahee) other running backs. I really think that's his main issue, because I don't believe he'll have a sohpomore slump like Matt Forte, he's a much better all around rb. Even when Mcgahee would get a majority of the carries some games, Rice would still find ways to produce. The Ravens have to have seen how good he was, and give him more production this year, and I think he'll rack up a lot more yards...the td's may not come with it however. People may not realize just how good he was last season, so he could potentially fall behind guys like Gore, Turner, and Jackson. If that's the case, then he will be a steal. Look for more fantasy points from him, a top-5 value at the end of the year, and IF the Ravens decide not to split carries all season or they lose Mcgahee/Mclain as goal line backs to injury....Ray Rice will be the number 2 rb...possibly number 1.

- Fantasy Guru

First Post goes to First Pick

The obvious place to start here is with the first pick of fantasy drafts. Three players are dominating the discussion of that spot right now, and so that makes this my first three picks: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, and Maurice Jones-Drew.

I think most people will lean towards Chris Johnson. The Dream had a crazy year last year, and his speed is dynamic and game-changing. He will most likely catch more passes out of the backfield this year, but do not at all expect a 400-carry repeat. That said, I also don't think he will have to score all his touchdowns from outside 30 yards this year, so he'll be able to get in the endzone more, even than the 16 TDs (14 rush, 2 receive) he got last year. Finally, in comparison to Peterson and Jones-Drew, who both power their way through lines, CJ just tries to run away from everybody, making him much less prone to injury and fumbles.

But really I think it's mostly a grab bag for the first three picks because none of them look bad on paper. The Vikings lost Chester Taylor, so maybe that means Peterson will become the third down back and get more catches out of the backfield. IF he can learn to hold on to the ball better in the off-season, he could very easily be the best back in the field. Of course, this all depends on that old guy who got rejected by Cameroon Diaz in favor of Ben Stiller like 15 years ago or whatever that was.

Jones-Drew is definitely the least flashy of the three, but still extremely effective. He catches tons of passes, and if you're in a PPR league, I could see him jumping either or both on the board. He's a great player to have, and I would love to have the third pick so I could get him, but I just can't sell taking him above Peterson or CJ unless Favre has a heart attack from trying to conceal the fact that he's coming back but he just doesn't want to go through all the pre-season mumbo jumbo. Or if Vince Young goes back into depression, or LenDale White puts back on 30 pounds and stops being a Monologue Vagina.

So there it is:

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew