Training Camp Eyes

Since training camps across the NFL have yet to begin, there a several guys that I cannot properly evaluate before I see what they do with their pads finally on in training camp. Training camps are important for determining starting gigs and for determining how inexperienced players or players on a new team acclimate themselves with the NFL and their team.

For this reason, ranking running backs at this point in the off-season is a mortifying ordeal for me. Without the playing out of training camp battles, it is nearly impossible to determine certain players' true value. All the running backs in contention for winning a starting gig in training camp will be on my radar for the next 3-4 weeks. For example, the Texans' starting RB job is up in the air for the entire preseason; whoever impresses the most and is the best fit for the team will be the starter. And whoever is the starter in that offense will be an extremely valuable fantasy commodity. As of right now, I have the rookie Ben Tate as the Texan RB that will have the best fantasy season. I think he will win the starting job, or at least win the red-zone gig since Slaton has serious fumbling issues and is a smaller, more elusive back while Tate is a bigger, bruiser-type back who did not fumble the ball in four years at Auburn (which I might add is quite remarkable--not once in 678 attempts).

Another important training camp battle to watch is in Cleveland. Jerome Harrison marveled many in the fantasy playoffs last year as the Browns' featured back with 561 yards and 5 TDs in his last three games. However, Cleveland drafted Montario Hardesty in the 2nd round of the draft, and he has already made an impression on the coaching staff. Heading into training camp, most people see a split-situation with each back getting approximately half of the workload. The Browns have a fantastic offensive line and any running back on the Browns is in the position to be very successive running behind that front 5. However, as of right now, I have the greatest concerns with Harrison's size and I flat out just don't think he has the talent to be a successive running back for an entire season. Hardesty, on the other hand, I believe not only has the talent to be a quality NFL back, but also has the intelligence that will take him to the next level. Mike Holmgren has already been raving about Hardesty's ability and burst, and Hardesty was already splitting carries with the first team in mini-camp. The fact that the rookie is already taking reps with the first team makes him the favorite in my eyes, and I think he has a real potential to be a significant factor in 2010.

Additionally, there are many running back prospects that I simply want to see with pads on and how well they perform in training camp. Sure, Ryan Matthews has looked good with shorts on and his coach has already said he would get 290 total touches this year, but how will he play with pads on and getting hit daily and repeatedly? How will Shonn Greene look taking reps with the first team offense? How many of those reps will go to LaDanian Tomlinson? Will Beanie Wells continue to progress and stay healthy through the pre-season to become a real breakout threat in 2010? Will Tim Tebow be given his own unique formation and swoop in to be a touchdown vulture of Knowshon Moreno? Or how will Moreno progress in his first full training camp (he held out last year), when he now knows the playbook? Can Kevin Jones make any type of comeback for the Lions to land him in a split with Jahvid Best? What will end up happening in Dallas? Houston? Buffalo? Oakland? Kansas City? New York (x2)?

In other words, once training camps start, you have to put your training camp eyes on...always alert on good and bad words about players and even slight shifts in relative positions as far as workload goes, because those shifts could become more intense through good/bad play in the season. Training camp not only lets you evaluate players before your draft based on their current situations, but they also let you try to predict players that might hit a wall halfway through the season and players that might be given an opportunity halfway through the season--AKA sleepers and dudes. Rookies report to most camps in less than a week, so time to get up 2 and let the preparation begin

2010 RBC Fever

Now on to what some would argue is the most important position in fantasy football: running backs. The dynamic of the NFL has been overhauled in the last 5 years as the passing game now rules the play-calling of most offenses and more running backs are being used by each team. This has also completely changed the dynamic of fantasy football drafts. Many people this year are advocating going WR-WR in the first 2 rounds, whereas taking running backs in the first 2 rounds of the draft used to be followed like a commandment. Nowadays, the first round is mostly dominated by running backs and the second round is mostly dominated by wide receivers, with 4-5 quarterbacks sprinkled in there. So while the average draft positions of running backs as a whole is steadily declining, their importance has actually become greater. With only a small handful of guys being their team's go-to running back, there are far more draft-able prospects and far more opportunities for running backs to vastly exceed the value of their draft position. However, a lot of these guys will be tough, annoying, or almost useless to own as the season progresses. The fact that training camps haven't started yet makes this list overwhelmingly primitive, and over the next month my list will transform based on the results of the rest of the preseason, but as of now, here are all the running backs that I would draft in a 10 or 12 team league, and anyone beyond this list I consider as someone who needs an extraordinary event or major injury to be fantasy relevant in 2010:

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew*

4. Ray Rice*

5. Frank Gore*

6. Michael Turner

7. Steven Jackson*

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Ryan Grant

11. Shonn Greene

12. Cedric Benson

13. Beanie Wells

14. Ryan Matthews*

15. Jamaal Charles*

16. Knowshon Moreno*

17. Pierre Thomas

18. Jonathon Stewart

19. LeSean McCoy*

20. Joseph Addai

21. Jahvid Best*

22. Felix Jones*

23. Ronnie Brown

24. Matt Forte*

25. Brandon Jacobs

26. Ricky Williams

27. Marion Barber

28. Fred Jackson*

29. Michael Bush

30. Reggie Bush*

31. Ahmad Bradshaw

32. C.J. Spiller*

33. Justin Forsett*

34. Montario Hardesty

35. Carnell Williams

36. Ben Tate*

37. Jerome Harrison

38. Thomas Jones

39. Donald Brown

40. Chester Taylor*

41. LaDanian Tomlinson

42. Tim Hightower

43. Steve Slaton*

44. Clinton Portis

45. Laurence Maroney

46. Darren McFadden

Players with an (*) are the ones that should receive the biggest upgrades if receptions count for points.

WR Rankings

Tier 1
1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy moss
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Roddy White
5. Calvin Johnson
6. Brandon Marshall
7. Greg Jennings
8. Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 2
9. Marques Colston
10. Desean Jackson
11. Steve Smith (NYG)
12. Steve Smith (Car)
13. Sidney Rice
14. Miles Austin
15. Chad
16. Dwayne Bowe

Tier 3
17. Anquan Boldin
18. Hakeem Nicks
19. Michael Crabtree
20. Santana Moss

There are a couple things I noticed about this year receiving corps. First off, I feel good about my top 2 guys who I have ranked this season because both have connections to my favorite group Outkast. Andre "3000" Johnson is the most dominant wr in the league and should finish with the most points. And my #2 wr Randall Moss, who will go down as one of the best wide receiver's ever, is referred to in the jam "The Whole World" by Killer Mike. This has to be a sign.

Another thing I believe, is that this group of recievers is pretty thin this year. After my top 8, I really dont feel comfortable week to week with the rest of the players (hence my split into tier 2). A lot of these guys in tier 2, who are usually reliable, I have question marks on almost all of them. Does Colston get enough looks on a pass happy, 4-wr deep team? Jackson's output rests on unproven Kolb's shoulders. Will Steve Smith (Car) have a reliable qb? Were Sidney Rice and Miles Austin's years a fluke? Make sure your not reaching for guys here early in your draft which most people will, where I think you can get more value/upside out of a top-6 qb or a quality timeshare rb.

The area of the list I feel most comfortable with, is actually the 4 guys I have in tier 4. These are what I believe to be the 4 most interesting WR in the draft. If Boldin stays healthy and Flacco goes back to just being average, he will almost certainly be a top-10 WR. But based on his history, do you want to reach for him early before someone else grabs him? Hakeem Nicks is sick, as is Michael Crabtree, and both of these guys may wind up being top-10 WR picks for the next 5 years after this season is over. Lastly, Santana Moss is very intriguing this year. He will be playing with probably the best qb he's ever had, and he will be the for sure #1 guy. Also, he is in the mold of a Desean Jackson, just in his older years now. His best seasons were with qb's like Vinny Testaverde (Good), Chad Pennington (had some good years), and Mark Brunell (his last productive season). If he can put up good numbers with those guys and decent numbers with everyone in between, I think he shoots way up in production this year for good #2 WR numbers.

Now I know my XYZ's

Now we can move on to the skill players. The NFL is littered with running back question marks and controversies, which makes that position much harder to rank, with greater variance between different people's rankings. This means we will start with the easier position: Wide Receivers. The NFL has become a pass-first league, and the opportunities for WRs to succeed are greater than ever. So, without further ado, here are my WR rankings for the 2010 season:

Tier #1

1. Andre Johnson

2. Randy Moss

3. Larry Fitzgerald

4. Roddy White

5. Brandon Marshall

6. Reggie Wayne

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Miles Austin

9. Sidney Rice

Tier #2

10. Greg Jennings

11. Marques Colston

12. Anquan Boldin

13. Chad Ochocinco

14. Steve Smith (CAR)

Tier #3

15. DeSean Jackson

16. Michael Crabtree

17. Hakeem Nicks

18. Percy Harvin

19. Steve Smith (NYG)

20. Vincent Jackson

Tier #1 consists of the 9 players that I will be satisfied with as my #1 WR

Tier #2 consists of players that are outside #1 options, but players that I will probably only draft as #2 options

2 comments:

1) I rank DeSean Jackson extremely low because I have no confidence in him even approaching the season he had last year. The strength of Kolb's arm suppresses the dynamic deep threat he presented to defenses last year. Much less, the odds of him catching so many 50-yard passes even with Donavan McNabb were slim. In all reality, DeSean will not even really be on my board when I draft, because the place he is getting drafted at makes him undraftable to me. He is being drafted as a #1 receiver, and I have him as only a mediocre #2 WR.

2) Vincent Jackson's value has been vastly decreased for obvious reasons, but he is included on this list because if something about his situation changes, he could still be very productive. However, I don't really see that happening at this point, and he is already guaranteed to miss the first 3 games of the season. This makes most people not want to touch him, but if he does indeed fall far enough, I don't think taking a flyer on him is a terrible idea. Last year, Brandon Marshall's value dropped significantly for his suspension and his off-the-field issues, but when he came back he was a legit #1 WR. Sure, Vincent will be out at least 3 weeks, and maybe even 10, but in the end he has the potential to produce during the most crucial time in fantasy football, since he has to come back for the last 6 weeks if he wants to get his money. So, once the 5th round starts coming around, you should at least consider taking Vincent Jackson, especially as both the viable WR and RB options dissipate from the board.