Keeping tabs

With the preseason over, and cuts recently made, there are a lot of faces in new places and expectations are at an all-time high. There are so many surprise cuts and still some anticipation from several general offices around the league. These players have made headlines in some way or another and I will be watching them from here on out, or I'm just excited about their fantasy prospects.

Mike Williams (SEA)--this former Lions-bust is being given another chance to shine in Seattle. With his former coach Pete Carroll now the head coach of the Seahawks, and #1 WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh released with final cuts, Williams is the clear #1 receiver for this offense. Although this still doesn't tickle me like a Vikings' signing of the aforementioned pre-madonna would, having a guy as the #1 receiver and being able to get him off waivers or late in drafts is excellent value.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (FA)--I still believe in this man. Who's your mamma is more like who's your team because wherever this guy lands he will have fantasy value. Let's face it, no matter what team he signs with, he can't be in a much worse situation that he was already in. Last year, he had 79 receptions for 911 yards. While this was truly disappointing to those who drafted him expecting elite numbers, that still is not a bad year. If he signs with a decent team, he could be a very productive #3-4 WR. If he signs with the Vikings, watch out.

Keiland Williams (WAS)--the Redskins cut both speedy Willie Parker and Shanahan's project Ryan Torain, leaving Keiland as the #3 RB, behind 2 veterans who are both injury prone. He is a rookie out of LSU, and if Portis and/or Larry Johnson get injured or are unproductive, this guy could see his chance to make a fantasy impact.

Jabar Gaffney (DEN)--Josh McDaniels loves to throw the football. Kyle Orton had a decent year last year with Brandon Marshall in town, and even as the latter leaves to Dolphinland, this team is going to throw the ball--not to mention their backfield is in shambles to say the least. The 3 guys on this team that have the potential to be the top WR threat are Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, and Gaffney. Gaffney has emerged has Orton's favorite target, and Thomas' injury should well delay his outbreak. Gaffney isn't being drafted until the latest of rounds, and the value their is through the roof. He will be a solid and consistent #3 WR (which is rare) throughout the season, and the vet will help many owners toward championship success.

Greg Camarillo (MIN)--the Vikings cut old-timer Javon Walker, leaving Camarillo as the clear-cut #3, slot WR. I expect him to quickly become Favre's favorite target, and I see him catching at least 60 passes this year. For a guy off of waivers, that's great. What's even better is Percy Harvin's spontaneous injury status, and for those games where Harvin is unable to play or is limited, Camarillo has excellent value. I watched their 3rd preseason game, and Favre was targeting Camarillo early and often, when he was on the field (it was his first week with the team). He is underrated as a receiver in general, plus he is a Favre-type player. Pick him up or draft him late.

Leon Washington (SEA)--the Seahawks also cut RB Julius Jones. This leaves Forsett and Washington for the backfield. While many are predicting Forsett as a sleeper and jumping on him in drafts, I have only heard rave reviews for Washington. He has claimed the top spot on the depth chart, and while he will never be a feature-back, he should get plenty of chances to make plays in a committee situation. Basically, I see Forsett and Washington as having the same value, yet Forsett is being drafted as high as the 5-6 round while Washington is left in the debris. One man's trash is another man's treasure.

Final Notes From Preseason

More often than not, the final game of the preseason is pointless, and useless to the fantasy world. While skimming across the box scores this morning however, I noticed several intriguing situations that could end up being very beneficial to fantasy nerds down the road. I made a quick list of players (most of whom are fantasy irrelevant right now), who I think are worthy of roster spots or atleast worthy of keeping tabs on through the first couples weeks of the season.


Javon Walker (Vikings): I assume almost all of us know that the Vikings signed Walker when Sidney Rice went down with his hip injury. And out of everyone that knows about this signing, probably just wrote him off like me. But when you look at how thin/even the rest of the Vikings recieving core, I'm starting to think it's entirely possible for him to get significant playing time, as long as he is in shape. Combine this with his 6 rec./119 yd/2 td performance in his 2 preseason games, and it looks like he may have regained his old step. How do we know he's lost everything from seasons past? He's still young, and if he can stay healthy, I think he gets playing time and could be end up wr3 this year.

Eric Decker (Denver): There isn't a ton of information on this guy. He was almost a stud in college, and scouts always said he had NFL skills, but injuries just kept derailing him. Denver is extremely thin this year at wideout, and Decker is finally healthy. He put together a decent preseason, and he's going to atleast be on the field due to injuries and no one else who has stepped up. No denver receiver is going to be that valuable this year, but he has all the potential to be their go to guy in the redzone, and could also end up being a wr3 this year.

Jared Cook (Tennessee): I'm 100% that when Cook starts getting regular playing time, he's going to be a very talented TE with a lot of value. But, regular playing time is probably going to be a problem with Bo Scaife number 1 on the depth chart, and Craig Stevens their best blocking TE. We know Vince Young loves throwing to his tight ends, and Cook is the most polished offensively. Look for him to slowly get more playing time as the season goes on, and I think he will have a lot of value at the end of the year, and in drafts next year.

Cincy's WR's: This is an interesting situation. There are loads of talent between 4 guys who could get regular playing time as the 3rd and 4th option in this offense. Andre Caldwell, Jordan Shipley, Dezmon Briscoe, and Jerome Simpson are all vying for basically two playing spots. I think the 3rd spot is gonna go to a combination of Caldwell and Shipley, but the latter 2 guys have BIG play potential if they ever get on the field. Shipley has the most upside in my opinion, and I actually expect him to be fantasy relevant for week to week plug-ins.

Darren Mcfadden: We all know the story with him. He's underachieved immensely. He's always hurt. He already lost his job this season. Luckily for him, Michael Bush may be out 4-6 weeks, so he's the clear cut starter and he has time to prove he's worthy. There's nothing else to say about run-DMC.

Deon Butler: I don't know about you, but I've been hearing more and more about Butler becoming Seattle's go to guy for the future, and his last preseason game backed up that hype. He put up 101 yds/1 td last night, and is easily the Seahawks #1/2 wr this year. With Seattle having a weak receiving group as well and TJ Housh on the trading block, there is no doubt Butler will get plenty of opportunities to prove himself. He is quite a speedster, so look for him to make big plays. The only thing holding him back as wr2, is the Seahawks passing game.

Anthony Dixon: Talk about having a good preseason and making a name for yourself. Dixon ended up leading everyone this preseason with 300 yds/3 td. We all know he's stuck behind Frank Gore, but this performance makes him a must handcuff. It's not out of the question either that he actually steals a few carries from Gore to keep him fresh. If Gore goes down with an injury, Dixon is going to become one hot commodity.

Jerome Harrison: The Cleveland Browns suck, and Cleveland just sucks in general as a city. The best thing going for them, is that suddenly Jerome Harrison's value has skyrocketed as a rb2, so more fantasy owners will follow more of their games now. Montario Hardesty probably tore his acl/mcl/pcl, one of those ligaments, so now Harrison is the go to guy - for sure. He had Hardesty in his rear view, but now needs not to worry anymore. With a strong finish last season, and a favorable schedule early on, he is going to provide nice production. We will find out if he can be valuable for a whole season, and if the forgotten James Davis steals any carries from him.

Week 1 Predictions

Well, we're almost there. Exactly 1 week until the 2010 season kicks off, so now we can finally start looking at week 1 matchups, sit/starts, and predictions. Without further ado, here is my forecast for week 1 top 5 scorers at each position:

QB
1. Phillip Rivers (@ KC)
2. Peyton Manning (@ Houston)
3. Drew Brees (vs. Minnesota)
4. Aaron Rodgers (@ Philadelphia)
5. Jay Cutler (vs. Detroit)

Suprise: Kyle Orton (@ Jax)

RB
1. Frank Gore (@ Seattle)
2. Chris Johnson (vs. Oakland)
3. Adrian Peterson (@ N.O.)
4. Arian Foster (vs. Indy)
5. Ronnie Brown (@ Buffalo)

Surprise: Cadillac Williams (vs. Cleveland)

WR
1. Randy Moss (vs. Cincy)
2. Andre Johnson (vs. Indy)
3. Reggie Wayne (@ Houston)
4. Larry Fitzgerald (@ STL)
5t. Calvin Johnson (@ Chi)
5t. Miles Austin (@ Wash)
5t. Roddy White (@ Pitt)

Surprise: Terrell Owens (@ NE)


TE
1. A. Gates (@ KC)
2. Dallas Clark (@ Houston)
3. V. Davis (@ Sea)
4. Z. Miller (@ Tennessee)
5. J. Finley (@ Philly)

Surprise: Heath Miller (@ Atl)

DEF
1. San Francisco (@ Seattle)
2. Bal (@ NYJ)
3. NYJ (vs. Bal)
4. NYG (vs. Car)
5. Pittsburgh (vs. ATL)

Surprise: Miami (@ Buffalo)

Top-5 Breakout Candidates

Let's be honest, in almost every single draft, everyone knows (for the most part) where every other competitor will be drafting certain players. That is, usually until about the second round ends. From this point, you see people reaching for certain positions rather than stats to fill up roster spots, as well as seeing people drafting for value rather open positions on their roster. We see people drafting players 2 rounds early afraid that player won't get back to them, and we see assholes steal a player early knowing he would stack a rivals team. Oh, and sometimes we see some donkey's draft a kicker before the last round. Basically, from the 3rd round - before the last 3 rounds, the draft gets very unpredictable, and this is where championship rosters are built. Since nearly every player has a question mark in this range of the draft, you must be very careful who you choose. If you manage to pluck 1-2 guys from here who have all-pro seasons, you're basically guaranteeing yourself a top-4 spot in the league which = postseason. Granted, your not in tons of trouble if you dont manage to get a couple studs, as the waiver wire is filled throughout most of the season with star additions. However, with the draft atleast you have control over who you choose, rather than relying on luck...errrrr..the waiver wire/Free Agency. (By the way, Im a huuuuuge fan of the new free agent auction option (on yahoo! atleast). I think it completely eliminates any luck, gives every member an equal opportunity to get any free agent every week, and it involves a lot of skill to budget your money for the whole season) So be careful who you draft during these rounds. Once again, make sure your going to get mediocre production at worst, and do your studying - every team, every position, every rookie, every depth chart. Then when the time is right (based on your roster, players left in the draft, etc.), snag your sleepers/breakout players. Just make sure you don't stock your team full of them, and always make sure you have a backup plan if they don't pan out. Without further ado, my top-5 2010 breakout candidates: (these aren't necessarily sleepers, but popular players who I think will largely exceed what they are predicted to do, or what they've done in the past)

1. Hakeem Nicks

Nicks was a high-profile receiver going into to last years draft, and he ended up getting drafted at pick 29 in the first round. With injuries and a down season last year for the Giants, he saw plenty of action the after the first couple weeks, and really showed off his skills. Nicks hauled in a score in each week 4-7 last season, and finished 27th overall for wr - very nice for a waiver wire pickup #3 wr. This season, I only see him going up after having a year under his belt. The Giants should be healthier, and better than last year. Nicks is definitely better than Mario Manningham (who can't hold on to the ball), but even if he doesn't win that "#2" spot, he will get tons of playing time regardless. The Giants may not be playing from behind as much this year, but expect a healthier backfield to open up the passing lanes even more. Steve Smith will get double teamed after breaking out last year, so assuming Nicks gets the snaps - I can see him finishing 10 spots better than 09'. I know some sites may have him ranked that low, but I believe others will skip over him for several picks. If he slides past 20 wr's, he will be a steal.

2. Felix Jones

You do realize how sick this man would be if he were by himself in the Cowboys backfield right? Well, there are others in the same boat, but Felix Jones is a monster. He's got blazing speed, he can break tackles, and apparently he's gained mass muscle and showed up in great shape. There really isn't much to say here since everyone has seen his flashes of brilliance, but I think this is the year where he takes over. Marion Barber isn't a first-round pick like we once thought he was, but still puts consistent solid numbers. He ended with 932 yds and 7 tds last season, but it was his 3rd straight 200+ carry season, and he is always dealing with a nagging injury since he runs so hard. If Felix Jones stays healthy, and excels in his ever-growing touches, they won't be able to keep him off the field. He averaged 6 yards a carry last year! I pray this guy can find a way to get a majority of touches this season, which like I said, I think breaks through some way this year. That results in big numbers on a super bowl contender, and depending on the number of touches, top-15 rb and better.

3. Dwayne Bowe

I think everyone forgets about Dewayne Bowe. He is actually, my number 1 breakout bro' this year. Remember his first 2 season in the league? 995 yds, 5 tds; 1022 7 tds. This guy was going to be a top-10 wr mainstay for years to come, untilllllll.....he got suspended for 4 games last season. And he still managed to get 589 yds, 4tds - with being in the doghouse all year as well. Well, this year, he (supposedly) has his head on straight, hes (supposedly in killer shape), he has a better team with a rb tandem opposing defenses will have to play against, and an (supposed) offense genius coach in Charlie Weis. So where are the negatives on this guy, and why is he ranked around #20 wr? I think at worst, he finished 20, and I fully expect him to regain his top-10 form this year.

4. Jermichael Finley

I can only assume this guy is probably pretty high on a lot of owner's lists this preseason, because of his productive 09 campaign. But really, this guy is going to be drafted behind the usual suspects: Gates, Clark, Witten, Gonzalez, Vernon Davis. Well, being a TE, which is always a weak position, Finley will be produce every week. I really think he's going to finish 1-3 at the TE position - which means he's basically putting up wr3 production. He's not really a household name yet like the other popular TE names, and there's no way he goes once the TE pick train starts rolling. Look for him to drop an extra couple rounds, where he should be taken with better production than most WR left at this point in the draft. He may not finish MUCH higher than his TE rank, but his predicted production will be better than predicted. Big things from this guy for the next several years.

5. Golden Tate/Nate Burleson

Golden Tate

This guy was uncoverable in college, and he goes to a team that is weak at WR, but has an able offense. So far, he's done nothing but dominate in training camp and hes going to start/get plenty of reps. He won't be drafted anyway until the deep rounds, so taking a flier on him a little early shouldn't hurt. But I see a similar line to Nicks last year, with less yardage and a couple more td's, as he has shown to be a beast in the redzone. Seattle doesn't have much, so look for him to be inserted to give a bolt of energy to the Seahawks.

Nate Burleson

I must have a man crush on Nate Burleson, since I've pretty much drafted him every season since I first had him in 04-05 when he posted 1006 yds, 9 tds. And, he cock-teases me every year. Starts out hot every season, then sucks donkey balls the rest of the way. But this year (this sounds familiar in my head), he is on a team with literally NO receivers beyond Calvin Johnson - who will always get double teamed cuz he is a monster-beast. I also really love Matthew Stafford. He showed he's got a cannon for an arm, he's got guts (see Browns game 09), he shows emotion, and he looks like he actually wants that poor franchise to win. Nate Burleson probably isnt even on anyone's radar, but expecting 700 yds, and 5 td's is definitely not out of the question - assuming he stays healthy.


Just Missed Cut

Beanie Wells
Clinton Portis
Malcolm Floyd
Chaz Schilenz
Colts WR (not named reggie wayne)
Donnie Avery/Marty Gilyard

Training Camp Eyes

Since training camps across the NFL have yet to begin, there a several guys that I cannot properly evaluate before I see what they do with their pads finally on in training camp. Training camps are important for determining starting gigs and for determining how inexperienced players or players on a new team acclimate themselves with the NFL and their team.

For this reason, ranking running backs at this point in the off-season is a mortifying ordeal for me. Without the playing out of training camp battles, it is nearly impossible to determine certain players' true value. All the running backs in contention for winning a starting gig in training camp will be on my radar for the next 3-4 weeks. For example, the Texans' starting RB job is up in the air for the entire preseason; whoever impresses the most and is the best fit for the team will be the starter. And whoever is the starter in that offense will be an extremely valuable fantasy commodity. As of right now, I have the rookie Ben Tate as the Texan RB that will have the best fantasy season. I think he will win the starting job, or at least win the red-zone gig since Slaton has serious fumbling issues and is a smaller, more elusive back while Tate is a bigger, bruiser-type back who did not fumble the ball in four years at Auburn (which I might add is quite remarkable--not once in 678 attempts).

Another important training camp battle to watch is in Cleveland. Jerome Harrison marveled many in the fantasy playoffs last year as the Browns' featured back with 561 yards and 5 TDs in his last three games. However, Cleveland drafted Montario Hardesty in the 2nd round of the draft, and he has already made an impression on the coaching staff. Heading into training camp, most people see a split-situation with each back getting approximately half of the workload. The Browns have a fantastic offensive line and any running back on the Browns is in the position to be very successive running behind that front 5. However, as of right now, I have the greatest concerns with Harrison's size and I flat out just don't think he has the talent to be a successive running back for an entire season. Hardesty, on the other hand, I believe not only has the talent to be a quality NFL back, but also has the intelligence that will take him to the next level. Mike Holmgren has already been raving about Hardesty's ability and burst, and Hardesty was already splitting carries with the first team in mini-camp. The fact that the rookie is already taking reps with the first team makes him the favorite in my eyes, and I think he has a real potential to be a significant factor in 2010.

Additionally, there are many running back prospects that I simply want to see with pads on and how well they perform in training camp. Sure, Ryan Matthews has looked good with shorts on and his coach has already said he would get 290 total touches this year, but how will he play with pads on and getting hit daily and repeatedly? How will Shonn Greene look taking reps with the first team offense? How many of those reps will go to LaDanian Tomlinson? Will Beanie Wells continue to progress and stay healthy through the pre-season to become a real breakout threat in 2010? Will Tim Tebow be given his own unique formation and swoop in to be a touchdown vulture of Knowshon Moreno? Or how will Moreno progress in his first full training camp (he held out last year), when he now knows the playbook? Can Kevin Jones make any type of comeback for the Lions to land him in a split with Jahvid Best? What will end up happening in Dallas? Houston? Buffalo? Oakland? Kansas City? New York (x2)?

In other words, once training camps start, you have to put your training camp eyes on...always alert on good and bad words about players and even slight shifts in relative positions as far as workload goes, because those shifts could become more intense through good/bad play in the season. Training camp not only lets you evaluate players before your draft based on their current situations, but they also let you try to predict players that might hit a wall halfway through the season and players that might be given an opportunity halfway through the season--AKA sleepers and dudes. Rookies report to most camps in less than a week, so time to get up 2 and let the preparation begin

2010 RBC Fever

Now on to what some would argue is the most important position in fantasy football: running backs. The dynamic of the NFL has been overhauled in the last 5 years as the passing game now rules the play-calling of most offenses and more running backs are being used by each team. This has also completely changed the dynamic of fantasy football drafts. Many people this year are advocating going WR-WR in the first 2 rounds, whereas taking running backs in the first 2 rounds of the draft used to be followed like a commandment. Nowadays, the first round is mostly dominated by running backs and the second round is mostly dominated by wide receivers, with 4-5 quarterbacks sprinkled in there. So while the average draft positions of running backs as a whole is steadily declining, their importance has actually become greater. With only a small handful of guys being their team's go-to running back, there are far more draft-able prospects and far more opportunities for running backs to vastly exceed the value of their draft position. However, a lot of these guys will be tough, annoying, or almost useless to own as the season progresses. The fact that training camps haven't started yet makes this list overwhelmingly primitive, and over the next month my list will transform based on the results of the rest of the preseason, but as of now, here are all the running backs that I would draft in a 10 or 12 team league, and anyone beyond this list I consider as someone who needs an extraordinary event or major injury to be fantasy relevant in 2010:

1. Chris Johnson

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Maurice Jones-Drew*

4. Ray Rice*

5. Frank Gore*

6. Michael Turner

7. Steven Jackson*

8. DeAngelo Williams

9. Rashard Mendenhall

10. Ryan Grant

11. Shonn Greene

12. Cedric Benson

13. Beanie Wells

14. Ryan Matthews*

15. Jamaal Charles*

16. Knowshon Moreno*

17. Pierre Thomas

18. Jonathon Stewart

19. LeSean McCoy*

20. Joseph Addai

21. Jahvid Best*

22. Felix Jones*

23. Ronnie Brown

24. Matt Forte*

25. Brandon Jacobs

26. Ricky Williams

27. Marion Barber

28. Fred Jackson*

29. Michael Bush

30. Reggie Bush*

31. Ahmad Bradshaw

32. C.J. Spiller*

33. Justin Forsett*

34. Montario Hardesty

35. Carnell Williams

36. Ben Tate*

37. Jerome Harrison

38. Thomas Jones

39. Donald Brown

40. Chester Taylor*

41. LaDanian Tomlinson

42. Tim Hightower

43. Steve Slaton*

44. Clinton Portis

45. Laurence Maroney

46. Darren McFadden

Players with an (*) are the ones that should receive the biggest upgrades if receptions count for points.

WR Rankings

Tier 1
1. Andre Johnson
2. Randy moss
3. Reggie Wayne
4. Roddy White
5. Calvin Johnson
6. Brandon Marshall
7. Greg Jennings
8. Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 2
9. Marques Colston
10. Desean Jackson
11. Steve Smith (NYG)
12. Steve Smith (Car)
13. Sidney Rice
14. Miles Austin
15. Chad
16. Dwayne Bowe

Tier 3
17. Anquan Boldin
18. Hakeem Nicks
19. Michael Crabtree
20. Santana Moss

There are a couple things I noticed about this year receiving corps. First off, I feel good about my top 2 guys who I have ranked this season because both have connections to my favorite group Outkast. Andre "3000" Johnson is the most dominant wr in the league and should finish with the most points. And my #2 wr Randall Moss, who will go down as one of the best wide receiver's ever, is referred to in the jam "The Whole World" by Killer Mike. This has to be a sign.

Another thing I believe, is that this group of recievers is pretty thin this year. After my top 8, I really dont feel comfortable week to week with the rest of the players (hence my split into tier 2). A lot of these guys in tier 2, who are usually reliable, I have question marks on almost all of them. Does Colston get enough looks on a pass happy, 4-wr deep team? Jackson's output rests on unproven Kolb's shoulders. Will Steve Smith (Car) have a reliable qb? Were Sidney Rice and Miles Austin's years a fluke? Make sure your not reaching for guys here early in your draft which most people will, where I think you can get more value/upside out of a top-6 qb or a quality timeshare rb.

The area of the list I feel most comfortable with, is actually the 4 guys I have in tier 4. These are what I believe to be the 4 most interesting WR in the draft. If Boldin stays healthy and Flacco goes back to just being average, he will almost certainly be a top-10 WR. But based on his history, do you want to reach for him early before someone else grabs him? Hakeem Nicks is sick, as is Michael Crabtree, and both of these guys may wind up being top-10 WR picks for the next 5 years after this season is over. Lastly, Santana Moss is very intriguing this year. He will be playing with probably the best qb he's ever had, and he will be the for sure #1 guy. Also, he is in the mold of a Desean Jackson, just in his older years now. His best seasons were with qb's like Vinny Testaverde (Good), Chad Pennington (had some good years), and Mark Brunell (his last productive season). If he can put up good numbers with those guys and decent numbers with everyone in between, I think he shoots way up in production this year for good #2 WR numbers.